Mike McCarthy’s 4th Down Decisions. Not much went right for Dallas in their blowout loss to Denver yesterday, but Mike McCarthy tried to keep his team in it with his aggressive 4th down decisions. On the opening drive, the Cowboys went for it on 4th and 1 from the Broncos’ 38-yard line, increasing their pre-snap win probability by 4.6% vs. a long field goal attempt. Unfortunately, they were stopped and turned the ball over on downs. On their next possession, after a Denver punt, they once again faced 4th and Short in Broncos territory. McCarthy chose to forego the field goal attempt again, with our model giving Dallas 2.3% greater chance to win by going for it. Yet again, Denver was able to get a second 4th down stop in two Dallas possessions. After allowing a Broncos touchdown on the following possession, the Cowboys faced a third 4th and Short in as many possessions. This time, however, perhaps with the two failures fresh on his mind, McCarthy chose to punt on 4th and 1 from his own 45-yard line. This decision cost Dallas 5.6% pre- snap win probability (worst 4th down decision of Week 9). Things continued to go downhill for the Cowboys, but midway through the 3rd quarter, McCarthy chose to remain aggressive instead of surrendering down 19-0. Facing 4th and 1 from their own 40- yard line once again, the Cowboys went for it on 4th and 1, increasing their pre-snap win probability by 2.7%, a relative increase of nearly 50%. All told, it was a pretty good showing from McCarthy, as far as 4th down decisions go.